Russian forces at 70% of level needed for full Ukraine invasion, U.S. officials say:
Military vehicles are seen during the joint exercises of the armed forces of Russia and Belarus at a firing range in the Brest Region, Belarus February 3, 2022. Vadim Yakubyonok/BelTA/Handout via REUTERS
Russia has 70% of the forces in place that would be necessary for a full scale invasion of Ukraine and is actively sending more battalions to the border. The ground is expected to reach peak freeze by February 15, allowing for Russia to freely move its military units offroad. The combination of these two factors suggest that the chance to diplomatically settle this is nearing its end. While massing more than 100,000 troops along its Ukrainian border, Russia has said it has no plans for an invasion but may act if its security demands are not met. Though US executives have said that a full scale invasion of Ukraine is unlikely, Russia is putting forces in place capable of taking the Ukrainian capital in only a couple of days. According to US estimates, an invasion now could cost between 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian troop casualties and between 3,000 and 10,000 Russian troop casualties. This could also cost civilian lives in the range from 25,000 to 50,000 while displacing millions of refugees across Europe.